Getting On Base

Please take a moment to review the important disclaimer provided at the bottom before reading the following content.

We are a few innings from the MLB Opening Day 2025, and the market's showing serious spring training discipline. Trendlines are being respected with almost unprecedented precision – it's like watching a team flawlessly execute batting drills. The market's allowing consistent base hits, letting us rack up run$ between the lines.

Is the market playing possum, lobbing softballs before unleashing a bullpen of 100-mph fastballs and knee-buckling curves next week? We need to be ready for both. While we’re enjoying this predictable action, complacency is a dangerous game.. Because like in baseball, you have to be ready for anything.

I'll present some line-drive ideas below, but the real play is the convergence of trendlines around January 14th and 15th. This timing aligns perfectly with the PPI (14th) and CPI (15th) data releases – likely the next market-jolting catalysts. Consider these dates our next live at-bat, while we hit it where they ain’t until then. 

Uber 

This play doesn't fit the trendline theme exactly, but the setup is too good to pass up. Since Tesla's autonomous driving push, Uber's been left in the dust. Fears about their rideshare dominance have sent shares tumbling from $87 on October 11th to around $64 today. This slump could be a prime buying opportunity. Uber's currently in what we'll call the 'S→D zone'—a potential shift from supply to demand if this level holds. With Tesla hitting home runs, and Uber striking out, is it time for Uber to call in their DH to the plate and buy? The charts speak for themselves.

Marvell Technology

Marvell presents an interesting opportunity. The pre-market activity clearly demonstrated strong buying interest at a key trendline, resulting in a significant bounce. The current modest decline in share price warrants attention as a potential secondary entry point. The prevailing AI narrative continues to support Marvell, and its valuation remains compelling. While the company's final quarterly earnings will be released in February, the forward-looking EPS estimates are particularly noteworthy. Current projections indicate substantial growth: over 77% from FY24 (1.56 EPS) to FY25 (2.76 EPS), followed by another 30%+ increase to 3.60 EPS in FY26.

Fortinet

Fortinet offers a compelling opportunity for those seeking exposure to the cybersecurity sector. While larger, more widely followed names like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks dominate headlines, Fortinet presents a potentially undervalued play. Despite some recent price volatility outside of our trend lines, the long-term growth trajectory for cybersecurity remains robust, driven by the expanding digital economy and the corresponding need for robust data protection. Fortinet is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, providing essential security solutions that ensure user trust and data privacy. The success of any technology hinges on user trust, and this trust is built on security and reliability. Fortinet provides this essential foundation, acting as the umpires of the digital world. Just as umpires maintain order and fairness in baseball, Fortinet ensures the integrity and security of digital interactions, protecting users from potential threats.

Cloudflare

My next chart examines Cloudflare, a company that shares a similar mission with Fortinet—protecting users—but with a stronger emphasis on accessibility and performance. One of the primary criticisms of baseball has been the length of its games. However, the recent implementation of a pitch clock has significantly addressed this issue. Similarly, Cloudflare optimizes online experiences by routing users to the closest servers and providing robust security, effectively "speeding up the game" and improving user engagement. While patience may be required for a favorable entry point at the trendline, the long-term outlook remains positive.

Microsoft

Microsoft offers a compelling investment thesis based on a disciplined, value-oriented approach. While market focus often gravitates towards high-growth mega-cap names, Microsoft presents an opportunity to capitalize on a more stable and predictable growth trajectory. This strategy echoes the principles of data-driven decision-making popularized by Billy Beane (Moneyball), emphasizing consistent gains over high-risk, speculative bets. While others continue to swing for home runs, this article advocates for a strategy of consistent base hits—getting on base and advancing runners. Microsoft's current valuation provides a degree of downside protection, mitigating some of the risks associated with overvalued growth stocks.

While other opportunities were considered, recent price action no longer aligns with my strategy of consistent, measured gains. Grab the family, grab the kids, or maybe invite that coworker you know loves baseball and let’s make some money with base hits until the market breaks one way or the other. Whether you bat left-handed or right-handed - I believe the ideas above have the potential to set your 2025 trading and investing journey off in the correct trajectory.

Disclaimer: Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade.

You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or overcompensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown.

The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account.

Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.